NOT TO SHARE RESPONSIBILITY

In Armenia, the process of forming a new government, which can be compared to the large-scale "reformatting" of the political field, is continuing. Perhaps, more extensive regrouping than it seemed has begun. Yerevan experts consider the post of prime minister just another step in the career of Hovik Abrahamyan, who, as many are convinced, aims no more, no less at the presidency. In any case, the Armenian media have already quoted sensational WikiLeaks revelations, where a cable sent by US Charge d'Affaires in Armenia Joseph Pennington in May 2009 deserves special attention. In the cable, the diplomat talks about his meeting with the businessman Mikhail Baghdasarov: "Baghdasarov opined that the inefficiency of Tigran Sargsyan as prime minister helped the political rise of the chairman of the National Council, Hovik Abrahamyan. According to Baghdasarov, when major players in the political field of Armenia want something to happen, they neglect the prime minister and go to Abrahamyan. The entrepreneur noted that one should not underestimate Abrahamyan and that he has already managed to create a "shadow government" in the parliament. Baghdasarov suggested that Hovik Abrahamyan would become the next prime minister and, in the end, president of Armenia. The entrepreneur did not rule out that Abrahamyan might find a way to dislodge Serzh Sargsyan from the fight for the presidency in 2013." Besides that, Pennington also gave a very unflattering description of the current prime minister: "According to foreign observers and many Armenians, Abrahamyan is a poorly educated man with narrow provincial mentality, who, however, should not be underestimated."

Today Yerevan evasively answers the question of whether Hovik Abrahamyan will have presidential ambitions, and if so, whether he will wait for the elections scheduled for 2018 or try to force things. The focus of the Armenian expert community is on the regrouping of political forces.

The expected "fraternization" with the Prosperous Armenia party, however, did not happen - despite Hovik Abrahamyan's family ties with PAP leader Gagik Tsarukyan. Until recently, the Dashnaks kept a pause too. But to the surprise of many, the Orinats Yerkir party fell out of the ruling coalition. Despite the fact that three of its members received ministerial portfolios, OY considered the question of its future participation in the political coalition "problematic and inappropriate". The Armenian service of Radio Liberty reported that, according to the party's political council, over the past six years, in reality the coalition format has been working ineffectively. Orinats Yerkir had no chance to influence the state governance system. For example, during the years of the coalition partnership, the ruling Republican Party single-handedly decided to nominate a prime minister three times and speaker four times without consulting OY, which quite transparently hinted that its leader Artur Baghdasaryan himself was not averse to taking the post of prime minister. After that, the political council granted the request of the three ministers to quit the party.

Not everyone in Yerevan believed that Orinats Yerkir supports the opposition, to put it mildly. The secretary of the faction of Armenia's ruling Republican Party, Hovhannes Sahakyan, once said: "Orinats Yerkir cannot be perceived as an opposition political force." As for references about further stay in the coalition being "inappropriate  and problematic", Sahakyan said that over the past six years Baghdasaryan's party has never made it clear that it questions the appropriateness of its presence in the ruling alliance and that it is burdened with any problems. "This could be seen neither during questions for the government nor in speeches and voting," Sahakyan said. Then he said that, in his opinion, "the opposition is the Armenian National Congress and Zharangutyun. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsu-tyun is moderate opposition, but PAP and Orinats Yerkir cannot be perceived as opposition forces." And in general, it is not enough to proclaim oneself opposition, it is necessary to make others believe it, or else "everyone is free to call themselves as they please: today they are in power and tomorrow they call themselves opposition". And OY itself, in spite of all opposition declarations, refuses to support the slogan about the resignation of the president, for example.

Opposition members themselves also are not willing to welcome OY with open arms. A member of parliament from OY, Mger Shahgeldyan, said: "We are ready to cooperate with the parliamentary Quartet on matters of public interest and relating to state security", while the head of the Orinats Yerkir faction, Yegine Bisharyan, announced that only the government and the opposition can be in the parliament, and there is no third option. However, the Quartet said that the party of Artur Baghdasaryan cannot be considered opposition and that this party and its leader will act against the united opposition, seeking to weaken its influence on society ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections. Baghdasaryan was reminded that in 2008 he finished third in the presidential elections, "taking away" a lot of votes from the opposition, but then accepted the offer of President Serzh Sargsyan and joined the ruling coalition, taking the post of secretary of the Security Council. The opposition Quartet is now calling it a "betrayal of their voters".

The "political manoeuvre" undertaken by Orinats Yerkir leaves at least some questions. This party has not "severed relations" with the ruling elite as resolutely as did the Dashnaks in the not too distant past in response to the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in Zurich. But they do not want to remain part of the ruling coalition either. OY cannot but understand that Armenia's economy is in poor condition - and that's not the worst. It is far worse that there is no hope for a speedy improvement. And Baghdasaryan is not willing to share responsibility for such consequences of new "premiership". And it seems that in the ranks of OY there is no special desire to tie their political fate to Sargsyan's regime. Especially as large-scale regrouping of forces has begun in the country and the political basis of the Armenian president continues to crumble. The question is only whom Orinats Yerkir has managed to convince that it is "half-opposition" and how.

AS WE WERE GOING TO PRESS

Baghdasaryan resigns as Armenian Security Council secretary

Artur Baghdasaryan, the leader of the Orinats Yerkir party, has announced that he is resigning from the post of secretary of the Armenian National Security Council. At a press conference, Baghdasaryan, recalling the recent decision by the political council of Orinats Yerkir to withdraw from the ruling coalition, said that Orinats Yerkir "would become the opposition", at the same time citing the five reasons for taking this decision: President Serzh Sargsyan's statement that he would no longer stand for the posts of president and prime minister, the fact that constitutional reforms are to be carried out, the Constitutional Court's decision to recognize the compulsory component of the accumulative pension system, the resignation of the government and the appointment of a new prime minister.

At the same time, Baghdasaryan said he would take the post of chairman of the council of the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] Academy, which is to open in Yerevan in September. He gave the assurance that this post would not prevent him from carrying out his opposition activities because he would be working for Armenia's interests.