RAY OF LIGHT FROM GENEVA

Perhaps it is no exaggeration to say that the fate of Syria and even the fate of stability in the Middle East and around the world are currently being decided. The threat of US military strikes against Syria remains, but there is still a chance that the current crisis can be overcome only through peaceful negotiations and international law.

The situation changed dramatically after Russia urged Damascus to place chemical weapons under international supervision, agree on the subsequent destruction of the arsenal and join the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Russia initially opposed the military action of Washington and some of its allies against Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin's article published in The New York Times recently once again called on the United States to act only through the UN and not to take unilateral military action against Syria. According to the Russian leader, a US military strike "could lead to increased violence and a new wave of terrorism" and have a negative impact on the situation around the Iranian nuclear programme and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. In addition, Putin presumed again that behind the chemical attacks in Syria could be the opposition, which is thus provoking their foreign patrons to intervene in the domestic conflict.

To some extent, the Kremlin's initiative to place Syrian chemical weapons under international control relieved the situation that seemed to be inevitably heading towards a new full-scale war in the Middle East. Damascus stated its agreement to accept the Russian offer, and in this regard, criticism of the initiative by the Syrian opposition appeared as a factor unable to exert any influence on the course of events.

However, the Russian initiative has one important aspect - the plan to place the Syrian chemical weapons under international control will only work if the US abandons the use of force against Syria. And it is more remarkable that the American administration, in fact, expressed its willingness to accept such a scenario. It is clear that the evolution of the US position occurred under the influence of a number of factors. These include the critical attitude of some of the closest US allies, especially the United Kingdom, to the impending military action against Syria, and the scepticism of many congressmen and most of the American public regarding Washington's military operation. As a result, the White House, which previously expressed a strong commitment to conduct a military operation in Syria without UN Security Council authorization and spoke of the need for "limited strikes" on the forces of Bashar al-Assad and agreed to slow down its anti-Syrian "offensive".

US President Barack Obama made it clear that he is ready to abandon the idea of military intervention in the Syrian conflict if Damascus really takes all necessary steps to place its arsenal of chemical weapons under international control. However, expressing its intention to seek the withdrawal of these weapons from Syria and to continue consultations with the Russian leadership on this issue, the US is determined to get all the guarantees that the international control will be "full-scale", "provable", "reliable" and "timely". Finally, US Secretary of State John Kerry said, "If it is not carried out, it should lead to corresponding consequences".

A position similar to the Russian initiative is shared by France - the only one of the major European powers that supported the US desire to launch a military strike against Syria. Welcoming the proposal of the Kremlin as a whole, Paris, however, expressed particular concern about the possibility of reaching an agreement on where and how the Syrian arsenal of chemical weapons will be destroyed at the time of a civil war.

Perhaps the only country that is categorically demanding military action against al-Assad's regime is Turkey. Recognizing the positivity of the Russian proposal, Ankara also made it clear that it does not satisfy Turkey. "Our position is to rid the world of all weapons of mass destruction," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said. "But in this case we are talking about a crime. If such a mass murder was committed, the international law needs to intervene and punish the aggressor. And the Syrian regime will not escape this responsibility."

But the key point is not preparations and calls of a military nature, but the outcome of the Geneva talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry, who were joined by the Special Representative of the UN and the Arab League on Syria Lahdar Brahimi. They discussed the same question - the plan to place Syrian chemical weapons under international control.

After the talks, the diplomats made it clear that the main debate has yet to come. The Russian foreign minister stressed the need to involve specialists from the United States and Russia, together with chemical weapons experts from the UN, in developing a "road map" in order for the issue of placing Syrian weapons under the control of the international community "to be resolved quickly, professionally and as practically as possible".

Lavrov also said that the foreign policy chiefs of Russia and the US agreed to meet again in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on 28 September. And this meeting is expected to discuss not only issues related to the Syrian chemical weapons, but also the prospects for an international conference on Syria - Geneva-2. Kerry made it clear that a precise agreement "will depend, of course, on our ability to succeed here, in the next day and hour, on the topic of chemical weapons".

As for Brahimi, after the talks with Kerry and Lavrov he said that the work on the chemical disarmament of Syria is an important component of preparations for Geneva-2.

Thus, there is real hope that diplomatic efforts will help prevent the military operations by the US and its allies against Syria. However, fundamental and irreversible statements to that effect can be made only if the whole range of issues related to Syria is fully harmonized in the negotiations between the US and Russia.